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10:50 AM Friday May  01, 2009
Author: The Foundation

Could this be the first steps of a recovery taking hold - the much talked about green shoots? We would dearly like to believe that it is. After all, the economy has been in recession since early 2008, and we are possibly in the midst of the sixth straight quarterly contraction in economic activity - the longest negative streak since the 1970s.

Indeed, respondents' own activity expectations have showed a large lift as well, from March's net 21 percent expecting worse times over the year ahead to just a net 4 percent expecting a deterioration this month. The own activity reading may still be in negative territory, but the second derivative has shown the largest improvement since February 1993.

Other key gauges in our survey also showed an improvement. To be sure, gauges such as employment, profit and investment intentions are still well entrenched in negative territory, but the first step to recovery is making a positive movement at the outset. Profit expectations improved 11 points, although a net 30 percent of respondents still expect lower bottom lines over the year ahead. A net 19 percent expect to reduce their workforce, a 9 point improvement from the previous month. While this is a welcome jump, such negativity towards employment prospects will remain a key spanner in the works towards both a recovery taking hold and the potential magnitude of it.

While investment intentions have improved from last month's record low reading, a net 12 percent of respondents still expect to invest less - something which does not bode well for the future productive capacity of the economy. Investment intentions among manufacturers improved only marginally, to be the second lowest on record at minus 23. But a glimmer of hope for manufacturers could be found in the 30 point improvement in their export intentions, a record turnaround and back into positive territory.

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